How Presidential Elections Impact the Housing Market

by Kevin Howard

Let's address the elephant in the room — we’re in the midst of an election year and you’re likely curious about the effect elections have on the housing market. Many assume elections have a negative impact, but the facts tell a different story.

According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, home price appreciation during election years (4.84%) exceeds that of non-election years (4.44%) since 1987. Factors like supply and interest rates influence the housing market more significantly than presidential elections. For most people, election results have little direct effect on their income, so it shouldn’t impact their decision to buy or sell a home.

Additionally, mortgage rates tend to decrease leading up to presidential elections, which is great news for buyers as interest rates have been quite volatile for some time. Data from Freddie Mac shows that mortgage rates decreased leading up to 8 of the last 11 presidential elections. This trend can make buying a home more attractive during election years. Moreover, home sales typically increase after presidential elections. U.S. annual existing home sales went up after 9 of the last 11 presidential elections.

While presidential elections have some impact on the housing market, the effects tend to be small and temporary. Even so, listing your home sooner rather than later can be a strategic move if you aim to sell before the end of the year. As the presidential election draws closer, public attention will increasingly shift towards political events, potentially overshadowing the real estate market. This focus will intensify in the weeks leading up to November, making it a challenging period to attract buyers. Additionally, the holiday season that follows soon after is historically slow for home sales. Given that homes are currently staying on the market longer, delaying your listing could result in it hitting the market at a less opportune time and ultimately not selling as quickly as you’d like.

It’s important to work with an experienced real estate agent to ensure your home is priced right and looking its best to attract buyers so that you can position your home in a more favorable selling environment. So, if you want to sell this year, it is in your best interest to act now. For buyers, you should be monitoring interest rates and working with a reputable lender to ensure you are ready to act should rates come down as expected. Buying before the election instead of waiting until after means you will have less competition based on historical trends and more options as active inventory continues to increase.

At the end of the day, it always comes down to your particular situation and local market conditions. Feel free to reach out to discuss your real estate needs in more detail. We’re here to guide you and ensure you make informed decisions.