St. Johns County Fall Market Update & Forecast

The St. Johns County single-family market is continuing to show signs of stabilization as we move into October. In September, the median sale price held around $480,000, down about 3.8% from last year, while homes took longer to sell, with median days on market rising to 97 compared to 76 a year ago. Inventory is gradually improving, with just over 700 new listings added. The median listing price per square foot has eased slightly to $268, signaling that sellers are adjusting to current conditions.

For buyers, this shift means more options and negotiating power. Builders with surplus inventory are offering incentives, while resale sellers must stay competitive by pricing in line with recent comps. Homes in top school zones, coastal communities, and master-planned neighborhoods like Nocatee and SilverLeaf continue to draw steady interest, but properties outside those hotspots are sitting longer and require sharper pricing strategies.

Looking ahead, October should bring more of the same: modest price movement within a 1% range and longer market times hovering near 90–110 days. Over the next year, if interest rates stay steady and in-migration continues, we can expect gradual appreciation of about 2–3% annually, with stronger gains of 3–4% projected over the next 3–5 years in high-growth corridors. If you’re thinking about buying, now is the time to take advantage of added inventory and motivated sellers. If you’re planning to sell, preparing your home and pricing it right will help you capture serious buyers this fall. Reach out to me anytime to review your options and put a strategy in place that works best for your goals.